Mozambicans will vote Wednesday in an election to elect a new president as the ruling party Frelimo may likely maintain its half-century grip on power, despite a stiff challenge from a charismatic newcomer.
President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down after two terms and the party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, is expected to replace him.
Frelimo party has ruled Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975.
It first allowed elections in 1994, and has since been consistently accused by opponents and election observers of rigging them – an accusation it denies.
This time, independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has captured the support of disenchanted youth and poses the biggest threat to Frelimo in years, political analysts say.
He also poses a challenge to the official opposition party, Renamo, which was formerly a guerrilla movement waging a decades-long bush war against the government.
Whoever wins will inherit an Islamist insurgency in the north that has halted multi-billion dollar gas projects and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
“These areas where there is terrorism are an attack on all Mozambicans,” Chapo told a cheering rally of supporters in Maputo on Sunday, vowing to defend Mozambique’s “peace, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The country of 35 million people is also emerging from an economic crisis caused in part by a hidden debt scandal.
In the 2019 election, European Union observers reported cases of intimidation, ballot-box stuffing, intentional invalidation of opposition votes and altering of polling station results.
A Frelimo spokesperson did not respond to Reuters’ questions about alleged vote-rigging in previous elections, or whether it would respect the results of this one if it loses. Party officials have in the past ignored or denied claims of fraud.
If the results are disputed, activists and analysts expect protests, which in the past have been violently suppressed.
“We know that at the end, the status quo will remain,” said Adriano Nuvunga, director of the local Centre for Democracy and Human Rights. But he added that Mondlane’s campaign was creating excitement and raising the risk of post-election unrest.
