The Governance Research Bureau, in collaboration with Media Generals Election Command Centre, has predicted election winning strategies for both the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
It observed that both parties needed to increase their average votes in their strongholds and in swing regions to clinch power in Election 2020.
According to the Bureau, NDC can win the 2020 elections if they increase their average votes in their strongholds by 115,000 while NPP needed to increase their average votes in swing regions by 450,000 to clinch victory.
This winning formula was prescribed by Dr Kwame Asah-Asante and Dr Ezekiel Nii Nortey, both resource persons from the Governance Research Bureau, while discussing the 2020 elections from perspectives of political science and statistics and was based on the Bureau’s analysis of Electoral Commission’s (EC’s) certified results of the two parties since 1992.
They said in addition to NDC increasing their votes in their strongholds by 115,000, the party should also maintain their average votes of 1,069,039 in NPP strongholds and 2,515,421 in swing regions.
For the NPP, Dr Asah-Asante and Dr Nii Nortey recommended that while the party should increase their votes in swing regions by 450,000 votes, they should maintain their average votes of 2,118,663 in their strongholds and 630,503 votes in NDC strongholds.
Speaking on the formula, they indicated that both NPP and NDC needed to perform better in their opponent’s strongholds as well as swing regions to win the elections, and stressed that other variables, such as economy, infrastructure, health, and education, among others, could alter results either way.
They noted that for the parties to win, they should maintain their national average votes and target votes of smaller parties.
Dr Asah-Asante, who is also a senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the University of Ghana, stated that “the performance of the NPP and NDC in the swing regions will determine the winner, and winning in their strongholds alone will not be enough”.
For his part, Dr Nortey, also a senior lecturer at the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, at the University of Ghana, suggested to the parties to “strive to capture much more votes from their opponent’s strongholds and the swing regions to secure victory”. -3news.com