In the past few days, as I have traversed this country, addressing various social and cultural issues, I’ve been struck by a growing, yet often overlooked, political phenomenon. The leaves are falling. The most ardent supporters of this administration—the ones who cheered on President William Ruto’s rise to power as the political messiah—are letting go. However, there’s no clarity on what autumn is ushering in. In the face of this growing discontent, no alternative has yet emerged.
What led to President Ruto’s ascension is clear: in the final term of the previous regime, he positioned himself as the voice of the people. Amid the country’s struggles, he framed himself as the much-needed alternative, the politician who could right the course. He captured the imagination of many and, ultimately, the support of the hustlers. By appropriating the opposition and outmaneuvering the political establishment, Ruto made himself the only viable leader in the eyes of many.
Yet, as the leaves fall and dissatisfaction with his leadership grows, there is still no clear alternative. One figure who has been floated as a possible contender to President Ruto is Fred Matiang’i. A former Cabinet Secretary for Interior and Coordination of National Government, Matiang’i built a reputation as a no-nonsense leader. His tenure in Interior was marked by effective administration and a no-compromise approach to security and government projects, positioning him as someone who could be trusted to get things done.
Matiang’i’s perceived competence could be an appealing alternative to the current government, especially as Kenyans grow weary of unfulfilled promises. His image as a “man of action” contrasts with Ruto’s leadership, which many see as struggling with unaddressed challenges. Matiang’i, a technocrat, might appeal to voters tired of political grandstanding and in need of a leader who can deliver tangible results.
However, Matiang’i’s candidacy would face significant hurdles, particularly the fact that he has yet to build the political machinery needed to challenge Ruto effectively. Though his tenure was marked by solid governance, his time in the administration ties him to the establishment—a potential disadvantage in a climate where many Kenyans are disillusioned by the current government’s perceived failures. His challenge lies in framing himself as an alternative, fully disassociating from the current regime while appealing to a broad base of disillusioned voters.
Moreover, the political landscape in Kenya is heavily influenced by regional dynamics and ethnicity. Matiang’i’s appeal will need to extend beyond his traditional support base in specific regions, tapping into the emerging, tribeless consciousness that is driving a more issue-based political dialogue. His connections with the Jubilee Party and unwavering support from Gusii legislators, particularly Senator Richard Onyonka, give him a solid foundation to build upon.
For Matiang’i to succeed, he would need to unite a broad coalition of seasoned political figures and new voices. Only with a strong, unified political base could he generate the momentum needed to challenge Ruto. Without such a coalition, Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, with its strong grassroots support, particularly in Central Kenya, could easily crush any challenge from Matiang’i.
That said, if Matiang’i can present himself as a leader who genuinely understands and can address the pressing economic issues facing Kenyans—particularly the marginalized and poor—he could become a serious contender. If he taps into the growing discontent with Ruto’s administration, he could gain substantial traction, ushering in a new political era where the leaves of change finally take root.
However, it is important to note that Matiang’i would need more than just hope. He would need a clear, actionable plan to address the country’s challenges. His past track record alone won’t be enough. He must build a credible political movement that not only critiques the current regime but offers viable solutions that can rally the Kenyan populace. The focus must be on unity, a unified front that resonates with the aspirations of all Kenyans, regardless of their ethnic or regional background.
Ultimately, the future of Kenyan politics hinges on how the government responds to the growing chorus of discontent. If the current regime does not address the fundamental concerns of the people—especially the high cost of living, unemployment, and corruption—the demand for change will only intensify. Whether this change comes in the form of Fred Matiang’i or another political figure, the stakes are high, and Kenya’s political future will depend on the ability of its leaders to truly respond to the needs of the citizens.
In many ways, the current regime must heed the lessons of leaders like Arsène Wenger, who watched his glory days at Arsenal fade into decline as he failed to adapt to the changing times. If Kenya’s leadership does not adjust its approach and deliver tangible results, the chorus calling for change will only grow louder, and that change could come in many forms. The question remains: will it be Fred Matiang’i, or someone else, who stands ready to fill the void?
Dr. Hesbon Owila is a Media and Political Communications Researcher.
Source: capitalfm
