When Donald Trump introduced tariffs during his second presidency, many assumed they were primarily aimed at China, Canada, and Mexico. However, with his return to the White House, his trade policies are once again sending ripples across the global economy, and Africa—Kenya included—will not be spared. These tariffs are not just an economic maneuver; they are a seismic shift in global trade that could make life more expensive for Kenyans, disrupt key revenue sources, and force the country to rethink its economic strategy.
Kenya’s economy is deeply intertwined with global trade, and any shock to the system has far-reaching consequences. Trump’s recent directive to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries with a Value Added Tax (VAT) system directly affects Kenya, which applies a 16% VAT on imported goods. Under his new policy, the U.S. could impose similar tariffs on Kenyan exports, making them less competitive and reducing revenue from one of Kenya’s key trading partners.
Additionally, Trump’s tariffs have already led to retaliatory measures from China, which imposed additional levies on American farm products. While this may seem unrelated to Kenya at first glance, the resulting inflation in U.S. markets could significantly affect Kenyan diaspora remittances.
Remittances are a lifeline for many Kenyan families, and the United States remains the largest contributor to this cash flow. In January 2025 alone, Kenyans abroad sent home over Ksh30 billion, with the bulk of it coming from the U.S.
However, if Trump’s tariffs trigger inflation and economic uncertainty in the U.S., Kenyans living and working there may struggle to maintain their current level of financial support for families back home. Historically, when the U.S. economy contracts, remittances decline, weakening the Kenyan shilling and increasing the cost of living. A fall in diaspora inflows could also negatively impact foreign exchange reserves, reducing Kenya’s ability to import essential goods and potentially forcing the Central Bank to intervene.
Kenya cannot afford to be a passive observer in this unfolding economic turbulence. To mitigate the impact of Trump’s trade policies, Kenya must actively seek alternative economic strategies. Strengthening economic ties with China, the Middle East, and regional trading blocs such as the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is crucial. These partnerships can provide alternative markets for Kenyan exports and reduce overreliance on the United States.
Moreover, Kenya should expand its engagement with Gulf nations, which have shown a growing interest in African markets. The Middle East, particularly countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, offers a viable alternative for trade and investment, particularly in energy, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Beyond external trade relations, Kenya must also implement domestic policies to shield itself from external shocks. Strengthening local manufacturing, diversifying exports, and investing in value-added industries will make Kenya more resilient to trade wars involving major economies.
Additionally, Kenya should push for favorable trade agreements with the United States under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) or similar frameworks. A proactive diplomatic approach could help negotiate exemptions or softer tariffs for key Kenyan exports such as textiles, coffee, and tea.
The return of Trump-era tariffs is not just an issue for China; it is a global economic shift that will have direct and indirect effects on Kenya. Higher tariffs on Kenyan exports, a potential decline in diaspora remittances, and rising costs of imports could strain the economy. Kenya must act decisively by strengthening trade alliances, diversifying economic partnerships, and implementing policies that enhance self-reliance. As the world braces for another round of Trump’s economic nationalism, Kenya must prepare for the storm ahead.
Elijah Mwangi is a scholar based in Nairobi, he comments on local and global matters.
Source: capitalfm
