Votes are being counted across America, with some states already projected as wins for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris while others are still seeing queues of voters waiting to cast their ballots.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
The first polls closed at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening. The last will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
In some presidential races, the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning.
This time, the knife-edge race in many states could complicate how quickly media outlets project a winner.
But we are starting to get some projected results from states with the most predictable voting patterns.
Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
Narrow victories could also mean recounts.
In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.
Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, mostly by Republicans challenging voter eligibility and voter roll management.
On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and fewer votes have been cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
What are the swing states to watch and when might they declare?
The race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states, which experts believe Harris and Trump both have a realistic chance of winning.
Turnout has been high in early voting, both in-person and by mail, with records broken in Georgia.
Georgia – Polls closed in the Peach State at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger estimates a majority of votes will be counted within an hour of poll closures.
North Carolina – Polls closed 30 minutes after Georgia. North Carolina’s results are expected to be announced before the end of the night.
Pennsylvania – Voting ended at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) but experts agree it may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted for a winner to emerge.
Michigan – Voting concludes at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT). A result is not expected until the end of Wednesday.
Wisconsin – Results should come in shortly after polls close at 21:00 EST for smaller counties but experts predict the state won’t have a result until at least Wednesday.
Arizona – Initial results could come as early as 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT) but the state’s largest county says not to expect results until early Wednesday morning. Postal ballots dropped off on election day could take up to 13 days to count.
Nevada – Votes here could also take days to count. The state allows mail-in ballots as long as they were sent on election day and arrive no later than 9 November.
Why should we be cautious of early voting data?
In such a tight race, early vote results may not be the best indication of who will eventually win.
In 2020, Trump was leading in some key states on election night but Biden overtook him as mail ballots, heavily favoured by Democrats at the time, were counted.
Though election experts warned beforehand of such a phenomenon, Trump seized upon it to amplify his unfounded claims that the election was stolen.
There could be another so-called “red mirage” this year – or perhaps a “blue mirage” that initially favours Harris but then shifts toward Trump.
More than 83 million Americans have already voted, according to the University of Florida Election Lab’s nationwide early vote tracker. Women make up 54% of that tally, which could be a good sign for Harris.
But while early voting has typically favoured Democrats, registered Republicans have cast nearly as many early votes this time around.
When have previous presidential election results been announced?
In the 2020 election, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until four days after election day, when the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
In 2016, Trump was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) a few hours after polls closed.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight the same evening of election day.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception. The race was not decided for five weeks, when the US Supreme Court voted to end Florida’s recount. That kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
Source: capitalfm
