Amid a swarm of earthquakes and aftershocks that have rocked the Afar, Oromia, and Amhara regions in Ethiopia since December 22 2023, raised fears of a volcanic eruption, and prompted the hasty evacuation of more than 80,000 people, Sudanese geoscientists downplay concerns that the quakes could impact the crucial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), indicating that the current activity is far from the dam, which was designed to take seismic events into account.
The latest reported quake, which measured 8.1, struck at 08:25:54 (UTC) today, with its epicentre east of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences in Germany confirms.
Today’s quake follows a magnitude 5.8 quake on Saturday, and a 5.5 quake on Friday – previously confirmed by the GFZ, the US Geological Survey, and announced by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of European Civil Protection And Humanitarian Aid Operations – which were accompanied by more than 30 tremors and aftershocks over the past week. While no detailed information on the extent of the human and material losses is available, Ethiopian authorities are evacuating more than 80.000 people from the area, in fears of volcanic eruptions after smoke came from vents in the Dofen shield volcano, that rises 450 metres above the Awash plain in the northern Main Ethiopian Rift.
The Ethiopian Red Cross Society carried out a rapid assessment in the affected areas. It is estimated that around 81,750 individuals have been affected. There are key concerns on emergency shelter, food assistance and clean water.
Distant rumblings
The current seismic activity has again prompted concerns in Sudan, especially with regard to the integrity of the GERD, and the serious repercussions that could occur in Sudan and Egypt, however, Sudanese geoscientists downplay any current risk, pointing out that even the closest of the latest swarm of quakes has been more than 100 kilometres from the GERD.
In an interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, Sudanese surveying and earth sciences, engineer Abdelkarim El Amin, assures that the seismically active area is far away from the GERD, which is designed to withstand earthquakes, even when full to maximum capacity.
One concern is that the significantly low level of water in the reservoir lake that was recently monitored may be the result of a leak on the lake bed, which may affect the structure of the reservoir, especially in light of the increasing Seismic activities, however this is unlikely.
“What is important is that the area where the GERD is built is far from the earthquake zone in eastern Ethiopia,” he says, “and epicentre of the latest quakes is about 500 kilometres from the Renaissance Dam.”
El Amin notes: “Dams are designed with a maximum capacity to withstand earthquakes, and through monitoring around the world, we can see that with a few exceptional cases, they generally do not collapse as a result of earthquakes.” He added that the decisive factor is the area where the dams are established, where studies are carried out before the dam is built of the geological condition of the site. In the case of the GERD, Ethiopia conducted two studies. Sudan and Egypt were briefed on the content of the second study, while Addis Ababa declined to disclose the content of the first study of the two countries, he says.
‘The GERD represents more of a security issue than an engineering or technical one…’
In the interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, El Amin explains that the GERD certainly impacts the entire environment in its area and downstream, however, “the GERD represents more of a security issue than an engineering or technical one”.
Worst case scenario
While El Amin underscores that any collapse of the GERD due to seismic activity is highly unlikely, in a hypothetical worst case scenario, even a partial failure of the GERD would have a massive impact on Sudan and Egypt. “The Sudanese land surrounding the Nile is characterized as low plains, which means that water would flood large areas along the Blue Nile basin and the Nile River, and all facilities built on the banks, including three of the main dams in Sudan (Rosaries, Sennar, Meroe), would also be affected. The backflow of water in the White Nile, would cause flooding of large areas stretching from the confluence of the two Niles at Khartoum to the area of dams in the states of Upper Nile and Jonglei in South Sudan.”
El Amin concludes that a number of academics and the Ministry of Irrigation have prompted a new investigation of this issue, calling on all bodies interested in water resources to form a unit of scientists and experts to address all issues related to the GERD and its environmental effects in the Nile Basin regions and its tributaries, in a scientific manner.
“That this includes all water resources in Sudan: to prepare a comprehensive vision away from the political agenda,” he says.
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Source: dabangasudan
